Comments based on information available as of 6:35am CT on 10/10/2025

Growth: Better Than Nothing

With a government shutdown delaying key official data releases, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Beige Book may be give clarity on what’s happening on the ground in America. Last year, while the jobs numbers were strong, the Beige Book was decidedly more gray. After the government’s data revisions, those anecdotes proved to be more accurate than the hard data. The Beige Book may be the golden key to see what the Fed will do when it meets next.

Inflation: Expectations Versus Reality

The Fed’s Minutes from its September meeting showed how some officials are more concerned about the invisible threat of inflation expectations than the somewhat more moderate inflation that’s been realized so far. Un-anchored inflation expectations could turn a temporary shock into a more persistent problem. At some point though, reality should trump the ghost of inflation future.

Policy: A Nominal World

Economists seem to love debating the theoretical *real* neutral rate of interest to gauge whether monetary policy is too loose or too tight. But the Federal Reserve’s direct action is limited to setting nominal interest rates, not real rates. The real world is nominal. Maybe demographics, technological change, policy changes, savings behavior, and government debt levels have pushed the real neutral rate up or down, but the most relevant thing is whether nominal rates are too high or too low today. The rest seems overly academic. Most Fed officials at least seem to agree on the direction rates should head even if they wildly disagree about where they should eventually land.

Looking Ahead: Bulls, Bears, and Bees

Investing often focuses on the fight between the optimistic Bulls and the pessimistic Bears. However, the most successful strategy is to ignore this short-term drama and adopt the mindset of a Worker Bee. A worker bee consistently executes a plan, whether it’s through the euphoria of a bull market or the fear of a bear market. By remaining disciplined and focusing on long-term value, the “bee” finds opportunities to steadily build wealth in any economic climate. This steady, diligent approach outweighs attempts to profit from the volatile, emotional swings of the bull-bear battle. Be a bee.