The Annex Wealth Management Axiom Archive

Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 11/28/2025 Growth: Squaring The Circle Consumer confidence has returned to levels near the historic lows we saw last April, when President Trump announced tariffs and the market dropped nearly 20%. However,...

Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 11/21/2025 Growth: Dated Data Is Better Than No Data Summer feels like ages ago, but we’re only now getting the backlog of government data. Most of it simply confirms what we already suspected: the economy is...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00am CT on 11/14/2025 Fears of a Fed pause in December replaced fears of a prolonged government shutdown. There's always something to worry about, and that's one reason there's something called the equity risk premium....

Comments based on information available as of 7:00am CT on 11/7/2025 Growth: Brought To You By The Letter 'K'   Consumer confidence is rising for households earning more than $50,000 and falling for those earning less. Earnings growth expectations are up for big...

Comments based on information available as of 5:35am CT on 10/16/2025 Growth: Confirmation Bias Run Amok When reliable data is scarce, prior beliefs tend to persist. While government statistics offer the most comprehensive and dependable insights, alternative...

Comments based on information available as of 7:35am CT on 10/16/2025 Growth: Alternative Reality Without official government data releases, it's hard to gauge the health of the economy. There are private sector sources as an alternative, but they don't have the same...

Comments based on information available as of 5:35am CT on 10/16/2025 Growth: 50 Shades Of Beige The Fed's Beige Book certainly didn't paint a rosy picture for the US, but it also wasn't bleak. Three of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reported slight to modest...

Comments based on information available as of 6:35am CT on 10/10/2025 Growth: Better Than Nothing With a government shutdown delaying key official data releases, the Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book may be give clarity on what's happening on the ground in...

Comments based on information available as of 6:55am CT on 10/03/2025 Growth: Shutdown Slowdown "What, me worry?" But there may be more than meets the eye to this government shutdown. The pain individuals feel who are furloughed should not be minimized. However, for...

Comments based on information available as of 6:55am CT on 9/26/2025 Growth: Silver Linings Emerge Amid signs of cooling in some areas (job growth and existing home sales), pockets of resilience are shining through. U.S. new home sales soared in August to an...

Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 9/19/2025 Growth: A Bowling Ball More Than A Crystal Ball Published government data tells us, imperfectly, what happened in the past. It doesn't tell us what is happening or what will happen. Just because the...

Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 9/12/2025 Growth: Not As Strong As We Thought We Were The Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary benchmark revisions showed the labor market wasn't as strong as originally thought back in March. It all likely...

Comments based on information available as of 8:00am CT on 9/5/2025 Growth: Dribbling Along? There's a saying in statistics that two data points don't make for a trend. One data point certainly doesn't count as a trend, either. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book in June...

Comments based on information available as of 6:05am CT on 8/29/2025 Growth: “Beat and Raise” Momentum Earnings season is nearly over, and the results have been encouraging. According to FactSet, 81% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, and 58%...

Growth: Labor Is A Lagging Indicator Employers tend to be shy about shedding workers in a slowdown. They also tend to be hesitant to hire in a recovery. That's why labor market indicators don't lead, they lag the economic cycle. The near stall speed of private sector...

Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 8/15/2025 Growth: Changing Priorities The Amazon-effect is reflected in the retail sales numbers with non-store retailers posting a strong 0.8% increase in sales in July. The four-day buying extravaganza...

Comments based on information available as of 7:30am CT on 8/8/2025 Growth: What If May And June Were The Low For The Economy? Stagflation is in the air. That's the toxic combination of stagnation (low growth) and high inflation. But the July payrolls number showed an...

Comments based on information available as of 7:10am CT on 8/1/2025 Growth: How Low Can You Go? Headline gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded from the decline in the first quarter, but headlines can be misleading. Final sales to private domestic...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00am CT on 7/25/2025 Growth: The AI-A-Team In recent years, markets were led by the "Magnificent 7" — seven dominant tech firms. But lately, tech alone isn't enough. Leadership within that club has shifted to those...

Comments based on information available as of 7:20am CT on 7/18/2025 Growth: More Than A Bounce? Recent data suggest the U.S. economy may be on firmer footing than previously thought. Industrial production rose 0.3% in June, beating expectations, while retail sales...

Comments based on information available as of 7:20am CT on 7/11/2025 Growth: Clouds Are Clearing  The first half of the year was dominated by uncertainty over tariffs, taxes, and geopolitical tensions. For now, conflicts in the Middle East seem to have calmed, and the...

Comments based on information available as of 7:00am CT on 7/03/2025 Growth: Pent Up Animal Spirits? The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Statistics is not the most reliable labor market survey. The response rate is down from 70% in 2015 to 35% in 2025. The big...

Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/27/2025 Growth: Slowing, Not Stopping First quarter gross domestic product estimates were revised down as consumers spent less on services than originally thought. However, inflation-adjusted disposable...

Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/20/2025 Growth: Payback Time Retail sales in May fell 0.9% with the biggest decliners being cars and building materials. A lot of this is just a payback from consumers front-loading purchases of those bigger...

Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/13/2025  The situation between Israel and Iran is on investors' minds. As has happened historically, yields fell, oil prices rose, and stock prices fell. Oil prices spiked and that can weigh on growth and...