Comments based on information available as of 7:20am CT on 7/11/2025 Growth: Clouds Are Clearing The first half of the year was dominated by uncertainty over tariffs, taxes, and geopolitical tensions. For now, conflicts in the Middle East seem to have calmed, and the...
Comments based on information available as of 7:00am CT on 7/03/2025 Growth: Pent Up Animal Spirits? The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Statistics is not the most reliable labor market survey. The response rate is down from 70% in 2015 to 35% in 2025. The big...
Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/27/2025 Growth: Slowing, Not Stopping First quarter gross domestic product estimates were revised down as consumers spent less on services than originally thought. However, inflation-adjusted disposable...
Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/20/2025 Growth: Payback Time Retail sales in May fell 0.9% with the biggest decliners being cars and building materials. A lot of this is just a payback from consumers front-loading purchases of those bigger...
Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 6/13/2025 The situation between Israel and Iran is on investors’ minds. As has happened historically, yields fell, oil prices rose, and stock prices fell. Oil prices spiked and that can weigh on growth...
Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 5/30/2025 Growth: Fissures Forming Initial jobless claims have moved up, private sector payroll growth has slowed, and even service sector activity has slowed. Layoffs have been announced by some of the...
