Archive
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 5/15/2026 Growth: Something’s Got to Give Retail sales rose +0.5% in April, but excluding gasoline, sales only rose 0.3%. During that same period, inflation excluding energy was +0.4%, so real spending...
Comments based on information available as of 5:00 am CT on 5/1/2026 Growth: Blitz vs. slog. In the first quarter, the economy was largely propelled forward by a capital expenditure blitz. Spending on computers and related equipment alone added more than half a...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 4/24/2026 Growth – False dawn? This upcoming week we will get a first look at first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers. Don't be surprised if they look surprisingly strong. Don't get too excited,...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 4/17/2026 Growth: Turn Up the Volume? Pepsi’s first-quarter results offered a small but telling signal that the era of aggressive price hikes is hitting a wall.* After years of relying on pricing to offset...
Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 4/3/2026 Growth: Running on Fumes? February's personal income and outlays data raised an uncomfortable question about how much fuel the U.S. consumer really has left in the tank. Personal income fell in...
Comments based on information available as of 5:30 am CT on 3/27/2026 Growth – Less Margin for Error After a strong second and third quarter last year, the economy lost momentum in the fourth quarter—and there wasn’t much of a bounce to start 2026. Real activity has...
Comments based on information available as of 7:00 am CT on 3/20/2026 Growth: More Than Just an AI Sugar High The Fed’s latest upgrade to both near‑term and longer‑run growth forecasts raised some eyebrows, but the story isn’t just about artificial intelligence (AI)...
Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 3/13/2026 Growth: Turbulence Isn’t the Tide The February report showing a 92,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls was a shock, but it might not be a harbinger of more bad reports ahead. We haven't seen confirming...
Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 3/6/2026 Growth: A Jolt For Some, A Shock For Others The surge in oil prices is acting as a global economic stress test—and for some, a personal one. In high-income, diversified economies like the U.S.,...
Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 2/27/2026 Growth: Strength is the Signal, Not Just Noise The advance Q4 GDP estimate of 1.4% released last week revealed underlying strength beneath a seemingly weak headline. While government outlays weighed...