Archive
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 7/17/2026 Growth: Rosy Beige Book The American economy is flashing genuinely encouraging signals as the second half of 2026 gets underway. Retail sales rose 6.7% year-over-year in June, and it's not just...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 7/10/2026 Growth: No Longer a Balancing Act For years the growth story leaned almost entirely on services, but manufacturing is beginning to pull its weight. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing...
July 6, 2026 The second quarter of 2026 closed with impressive strength. The S&P 500 rallied 14.87% and the Nasdaq surged 21.41%. Yet, June itself brought a different, more varied tone. The headline indices took a breather with the S&P 500 down 1.06% and the...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 7/2/2026 Growth: From a Sprint to a Jog The labor market remains on solid footing, but it is starting to jog rather than sprint. ADP reported private employers added 98,000 jobs in June—down from 122,000 in...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 6/26/2026 Growth: A Roundtrip for Crude Brent crude, a global benchmark for oil prices, has essentially roundtripped, sliding back toward the mid $70s to sit right around where it was before the conflict in...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 6/19/2026 Growth: A Broader Base Consumers have been carrying a heavy load at the gas pump with energy prices up 23.5% from a year ago in May. That acts like a tax. Households have been deferring big-ticket...
Comments based on information available as of 5:00 am CT on 6/5/2026 Growth: A Rare Bright Spot? While consumers are feeling pressure and service-sector momentum is softening, manufacturing offered a rare bright spot. The ISM Manufacturing Index for May came in better...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 5/29/2026 Growth: the shock absorbers are mostly gone. A few months ago, consumers had some nice economic shock absorbers: the anticipation of generous tax refunds and a...
Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 5/15/2026 Growth: Something’s Got to Give Retail sales rose +0.5% in April, but excluding gasoline, sales only rose 0.3%. During that same period, inflation excluding energy was +0.4%, so real spending...
Comments based on information available as of 5:00 am CT on 5/1/2026 Growth: Blitz vs. slog. In the first quarter, the economy was largely propelled forward by a capital expenditure blitz. Spending on computers and related equipment alone added more than half a...