Comments based on information available as of 5:15 am CT on 4/24/2026

Growth – False dawn?

This upcoming week we will get a first look at first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers. Don’t be surprised if they look surprisingly strong. Don’t get too excited, though. A meaningful portion of that growth could reflect front‑loading behavior. Businesses have been restocking inventories to get ahead of potentially higher costs related to high oil prices. They have also likely been trying to take advantage of the narrow window between the striking down of some of President Trump’s tariffs and the likely imposition of new tariffs—despite there already being well over a hundred tariffs in place. That kind of inventory pull‑forward can flatter growth temporarily, but it tends to borrow from the future. The data may show a reacceleration of growth only to set us up for a little payback in the second quarter.

Inflation – One shock after another.

Inflation hasn’t had the luxury of settling down because it’s been hit with a steady drumbeat of shocks: pandemic disruptions, massive fiscal stimulus, tariff changes, supply chain rewiring, and renewed volatility in energy prices. Each time inflation looks like it’s cooling, something happens to reheat it. In a world absent fresh surprises, the underlying dynamics still point toward inflation drifting back toward 2 percent over time. The problem is timing. With cost pressures still filtering through supply chains, that destination is unlikely to be reached this year. The trend may be improving, but the path remains bumpy.

Policy – Back to the future?

The Fed Chair-in-waiting, Kevin Warsh, wants Fed officials to do less talking and provide less explicit guidance. That approach avoids boxing policymakers into a corner, but it comes with trade‑offs. It would look more like the Greenspan-era when the Fed often surprised markets through its actions rather than its words. Greater flexibility for policymakers could mean less predictability for investors. The result may be higher volatility in rates and risk assets as markets are forced to react, not anticipate. Forward guidance has its flaws, but dialing it back may reintroduce an old‑school monetary policy risk premium.

Looking ahead – A new world order.

We are living through a period not only of change, but of structural shifts. The easy course is to focus on the short-term, but it’s probably more important to be even more long-term in your focus. We are seeing a fundamental rewiring of global trade and a strategic reckoning regarding maritime choke points and energy security. For better or for worse, artificial intelligence (AI) is a disruptive force. These shifts are not inherently negative. There aren’t just risks, there are probably more opportunities than risks.