Comments based on information available as of 7:35am CT on 10/16/2025
Growth: Alternative Reality 
Without official government data releases, it’s hard to gauge the health of the economy. There are private sector sources as an alternative, but they don’t have the same depth and breadth of coverage. Thankfully we have earnings season where we’re getting a boots-on-the-ground assessment of what’s going on. There are mixed messages, as usual, but once again it looks like corporate America is really good at rolling with the punches.
Inflation: Exciting, But Irrelevant
It was nice to finally get some economic data. The consumer price index for September was the last piece of the puzzle to get a picture of 2026 cost of living adjustments for Social Security benefits. For the Fed, the inflation number might not matter much. Right now, Fed officials are more concerned about the labor market than about inflation. Without any evidence to the contrary, there’s nothing to really change their minds about cutting.
Policy: Still A Stalemate
The federal government has been shut down for more than three weeks, and the U.S. Senate has repeatedly failed to advance funding bills — including three separate attempts to pay federal workers during the shutdown. The main point of contention: Democrats insist on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies before reopening the government, while Republicans refuse to negotiate until it’s open. There are signs of cracks in both sides’ resolve. Defectors on each side could pave the way for smaller bills — such as paying essential workers — while the President expands the definition of who is considered essential. That could lead to a partial reopening, or a shutdown in name only
Looking Ahead: Any Price Won’t Do
When something is sought after, but in short supply, the price goes up. Maybe that’s the story of growth stocks, and especially tech: when growth is scarce it commands a premium price. At some point, the price can get too rich. Some of the volatility lately may be investors thinking that they should try to find growth at a reasonable price instead of growth at any price.
