Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 9/19/2025

Growth: A Bowling Ball More Than A Crystal Ball

Published government data tells us, imperfectly, what happened in the past. It doesn’t tell us what is happening or what will happen. Just because the labor market data from May through August were weak does not mean the data for the rest of the year will be bad. Trying to stare at data without a theory or idea of what may happen next is kind of like treating a bowling ball like it’s a crystal ball. With the clouds of uncertainty of tariff, tax, and monetary policy clearing, the thing that might surprise investors the most is that when it comes to growth, maybe the worst is mostly behind us, not in front of us.

Inflation: No Surge In Sight

We’ve already seen some signs of tariffs showing up in prices across a range of goods, but the full impact will likely unfold gradually and unevenly over time. Most businesses are hesitant to be the first to raise prices. Rather than a sudden surge, tariff-related inflation is more likely to simmer—slow and scattered—as companies test the waters to see what pricing changes the market will tolerate. In the meantime, many will focus on improving efficiency to offset rising costs, delaying or softening the need to pass those costs on to consumers.

Policy: Stirring The Pot

As expected, newly confirmed Federal Reserve Governor Miran argued for a larger cut than the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered. He is one of 12 voting members. Even if he were to be made Chair after Chair Powell’s term is up in May, that’s no guarantee that he will get to dictate policy. The Chair wields a lot of power in setting the agenda of the meeting and laying out options, but the Chair isn’t a dictator. At best, Miran–or any Chair–would be able to stir the pot, not choose what dish is being served.

Looking Ahead: Looking For Low Hurdles

Market multiples can be a blunt tool for assessing value. A high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio might suggest a stock is overpriced—or it could reflect strong growth expectations. A low P/E might signal undervaluation—or low confidence in future earnings. Understanding the context behind the numbers is essential. Today’s market shows a striking divergence: some industries are priced for aggressive growth, while others face much lower expectations. For investors, the challenge is to distinguish among what’s truly undervalued, what’s overhyped, and what could be underwhelming.