Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 9/19/2025 Growth: A Bowling Ball More Than A Crystal Ball Published government data tells us, imperfectly, what happened in the past. It doesn't tell us what is happening or what will happen. Just because the...

Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 9/12/2025 Growth: Not As Strong As We Thought We Were The Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary benchmark revisions showed the labor market wasn't as strong as originally thought back in March. It all likely...

Comments based on information available as of 8:00am CT on 9/5/2025 Growth: Dribbling Along? There's a saying in statistics that two data points don't make for a trend. One data point certainly doesn't count as a trend, either. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book in June...

Comments based on information available as of 6:05am CT on 8/29/2025 Growth: “Beat and Raise” Momentum Earnings season is nearly over, and the results have been encouraging. According to FactSet, 81% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, and 58%...

Growth: Labor Is A Lagging Indicator Employers tend to be shy about shedding workers in a slowdown. They also tend to be hesitant to hire in a recovery. That's why labor market indicators don't lead, they lag the economic cycle. The near stall speed of private sector...

Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 8/15/2025 Growth: Changing Priorities The Amazon-effect is reflected in the retail sales numbers with non-store retailers posting a strong 0.8% increase in sales in July. The four-day buying extravaganza...

Comments based on information available as of 7:30am CT on 8/8/2025 Growth: What If May And June Were The Low For The Economy? Stagflation is in the air. That's the toxic combination of stagnation (low growth) and high inflation. But the July payrolls number showed an...

Comments based on information available as of 7:10am CT on 8/1/2025 Growth: How Low Can You Go? Headline gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded from the decline in the first quarter, but headlines can be misleading. Final sales to private domestic...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00am CT on 7/25/2025 Growth: The AI-A-Team In recent years, markets were led by the "Magnificent 7" — seven dominant tech firms. But lately, tech alone isn't enough. Leadership within that club has shifted to those...

Comments based on information available as of 7:20am CT on 7/18/2025 Growth: More Than A Bounce? Recent data suggest the U.S. economy may be on firmer footing than previously thought. Industrial production rose 0.3% in June, beating expectations, while retail sales...