Growth: Labor Is A Lagging Indicator Employers tend to be shy about shedding workers in a slowdown. They also tend to be hesitant to hire in a recovery. That’s why labor market indicators don’t lead, they lag the economic cycle. The near stall speed of...
Comments based on information available as of 7:45am CT on 8/15/2025 Growth: Changing Priorities The Amazon-effect is reflected in the retail sales numbers with non-store retailers posting a strong 0.8% increase in sales in July. The four-day buying extravaganza...
Comments based on information available as of 7:30am CT on 8/8/2025 Growth: What If May And June Were The Low For The Economy? Stagflation is in the air. That’s the toxic combination of stagnation (low growth) and high inflation. But the July payrolls number...
Comments based on information available as of 7:10am CT on 8/1/2025 Growth: How Low Can You Go? Headline gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded from the decline in the first quarter, but headlines can be misleading. Final sales to private domestic...
Comments based on information available as of 6:00am CT on 7/25/2025 Growth: The AI-A-Team In recent years, markets were led by the “Magnificent 7” — seven dominant tech firms. But lately, tech alone isn’t enough. Leadership within that club has...
Comments based on information available as of 7:20am CT on 7/18/2025 Growth: More Than A Bounce? Recent data suggest the U.S. economy may be on firmer footing than previously thought. Industrial production rose 0.3% in June, beating expectations, while retail sales...
