Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 3/13/2026 Growth: Turbulence Isn’t the Tide The February report showing a 92,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls was a shock, but it might not be a harbinger of more bad reports ahead. We haven't seen confirming...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 3/6/2026 Growth: A Jolt For Some, A Shock For Others The surge in oil prices is acting as a global economic stress test—and for some, a personal one. In high-income, diversified economies like the U.S.,...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 2/27/2026 Growth: Strength is the Signal, Not Just Noise The advance Q4 GDP estimate of 1.4% released last week revealed underlying strength beneath a seemingly weak headline. While government outlays weighed...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 2/20/2026 Growth: A Broadening, but Stumbling, Bull The US economy continues to defy gravity, even if the stock market has had a few recent setbacks. Second-half 2025 growth was strong, and corporate earnings...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 2/13/2026 Growth: The Journey of a Thousand Miles The manufacturing sector may finally be starting its recovery. While the January 2026 jobs report showed a headline gain of 130,000 positions, the notable...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 2/6/2026 Growth: Cyclical or Structural Upswing? After a year of contracting, the January Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index indicates the manufacturing sector is getting a bounce in its...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 1/30/2026 Growth: When Slowing and Growing Don't Mix The Fed's policy statement upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid." That's encouraging. However, when I look at what's...

Comments based on information available as of 6:00 am CT on 1/23/2026 Growth: Riding The Coattails  Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised upward to a very healthy 4.4% annualized rate. While not an official forecast, the Federal Reserve Bank of...

Comments based on information available as of 7:30 am CT on 1/16/2026 Growth: Brighter days ahead? The Fed's Beige Book (a collection of qualitative information from around the country) finally said economic activity is improving. It's a "slight to modest"...

Comments based on information available as of 8:45am CT on 1/9/2026 Growth: Ending With a Thud The nonfarm payroll number was less than thrilling. A gain of 50,000 is better than a loss, but we do know that these numbers will likely be revised lower. In 2024, payrolls...